MicroChange

Climate change (CC) has become a central force behind the biodiversity crisis, and unravelling its impact on biodiversity loss stands as a critical ecological challenge of our era. The warming planet is causing climate zones to migrate towards the poles, displacing species from their current ranges. However, recent studies indicate that observed shifts in species distributions don't consistently match the anticipated patterns derived from macroclimate change scenarios. The core premise of this project is that obtaining precise CC data, as perceived by organisms, is essential for accurately addressing questions regarding species redistributions and extinctions. Recent research underscores how organisms respond to microclimates shaped by terrain and vegetation, particularly evident in forests. However, progress in modelling future microclimate temperatures in forests has been hindered by the complex dynamics of forest ecosystems across different future scenarios. The MicroChange project aims to tackle these challenges and generate high-resolution maps of future microclimate temperatures in European forests under different climate and land use change scenarios. These maps will be used to (i) explain observed discrepancies in species shifts, (ii) explore the microrefugia potential of microclimate heterogeneity and (iii) forecast CC effects on European forest plants. Overall, MicroChange will improve our understanding of how microclimates shape forest biodiversity in the future.

Researchers: Marie Noels

Funding: FWO Fundamental Research Project